IMF Global Financial Stability Report, April 2009.

 4/22/2009 11:57:19 AMDream: I am walking nearby Lea River. See the aged man with a rucksack made from green tarpaulins, the very old type, which nobody use by now. He’s old beggar. And from the distance a hundredth meters or so I see that this is me. Than I hear voices from the bunch of young in theirs twenties boys who are teasing with him.  I feel constantly a double, because it is me in one side and me again are in the same time struggling to creep put from very deep ravine. I use long grass like support to go up. One of young voices at the end their long mockery are saying to him: I need you dad… Than I wake up.  Well, for me clear every bit of this “message”. Lea River represents 2012 Olympics. The lot of cement Porland 450, (that outstanding debts of Co to me), where the yesterday “meeting” of russian building workers at my entrance to the City, play an important role. And which was made “at my back”, (the idea of “medvedev” – ‘a ты переварачивай’ meaning to do disturbances) the profound understanding of Anglo-American model mechanics. Where the local interpretation, give us idea of how visually and tactically can be the deep crisis of regular economic cycles. Where should be assented the amplitude of regeneration project of this piece-work (i.e. London Olympics) would accomplish. The green tarpaulin of my/his rucksack – mean NATO. Mean that young, perturbed GI, which frequently appeared in this area. Who too represent Anglo-American economic model. In this case,(my dream), its mean political (not existent) platform of EU, my apparent duplicity and of course, my age. Like the faces of Job centre which for a couple years now, are persistently grazing my tale. Principally on public places. Such as supermarkets etc. I call this negative inflation in a way of “ a comer” (to eat, to consume, etc.) over an extended period of time make theirs, the Co idea – catastrophic decline. Where the “voices” (in my place, in my head, etc.) where talking to much in a such degree, that theirs famous, International Consulting speaking in portuguese arrive at “this” deflation point. The part, where I was struggling creep out of the ravine – represent who are in the “eight” situation. Which exactly is the “illustrious” family are trying to creep-out. It’s a pity to spend to much ink writing down which. I told you before, to don’t be too much jealous to start questioning my “authority”. At the end, the “darlings” will carry out my orders because there is really no choice. Far away the BNB’s will be grateful that I took the initiative although silencing unsuccessfully (i.e. Damian McBride) my critics. Even if I feel that the around “authorities” do resistance to me, in a way it’s clear how “my pocket” bring riches to this country. But at the same, even when my input is not exactly welcome – it’s valuable input and I want apologize for voicing my discontent.

1). Трудности Британии утроились Екатерина 13:42 22.04.2009 МВФ в три раза преувеличил расходы Великобритании на кризис накануне представления в парламенте бюджета-2010. Международный валютный фонд отозвал на пересмотр оценку размера вливаний в банковскую систему Великобритании ($256 млрд), которые необходимы для стабилизации банковской системы страны, сославшись на ошибку в данных. Оценка была представлена в опубликованном вчера обзоре фонда «Глобальная финансовая стабильность». В докладе Британия выглядит одной из самых проблемных стран: ей предстоят одни из самых высоких затрат на стабилизацию финансового рынка — 13,4% от ВВП%), даже у США они ниже — 12,1%. Выше расходы лишь у Ирландии — 13,9%. В бюджете Великобритании затраты на стабилизацию в три раза ниже оценок МВФ — около $88 млрд, по данным FT. Такой конфуз у МВФ с пересмотром оценки вышел впервые. Хотя пересмотр оценок МВФ осуществляет регулярно, раньше расхождение мнений МВФ и местных правительств не было ни для кого принципиальным. В условиях кризиса статус МВФ возрос   (соответствующий мандат фонд получил от стран «двадцатки» в апреле), но пока никто не предпринимал попытки оспаривать его цифры. В этот раз прогноз МВФ был опубликован накануне одного из главных экономических событий года в Великобритании — выступления министра финансов Алистера Дарлинга в парламенте как раз с проектом антикризисного бюджета на будущий год. И главный вопрос бюджетного послания — цена мер борьбы с кризисом. Таким образом, расхождения цифр были критическими для тона дискуссии. В московском представительстве МВФ ситуация не комментируют, ссылаясь на то, что это в компетенции головного офиса.

2). IMF Global Financial Stability Report, April 2009

Published April 2009 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its semi-annual Global Financial Stability Report on April 21, 2009. The executive summary states, "The refinancing needs of emerging markets are large, estimated at some $1.8 trillion in 2009, with the bulk coming from corporates, including financial institutions. Though notoriously difficult to forecast, current estimates are that net private capital flows to emerging markets will be negative in 2009, and that inflows are not likely to return to their pre-crisis levels in the future. Already, emerging market economies that have relied on such flows are weakening, increasing the importance of compensatory official support." Chapter 1 adds, "As a result of continued pressures in credit markets, global financial institutions and other holders could face larger potential writedowns, according to our estimates. Looking at the range of assets originated in the United States over the same cumulative period (2007–10) as in prior GFSRs, expected writedowns have risen to some $2.7 trillion, up from the $2.2 trillion estimated at our interim update in January 2009, and from the $1.4 trillion estimated in October 2008. The rise represents the credit deterioration that the worsening economic cycle is creating. Considering a much wider set of outstanding loans and securities to include European-originated loans and related securities as well as Japanese-originated assets (totaling some $58 trillion compared to earlier estimates based on $27 trillion of U.S. originated loans and securities) provides a broader, albeit more uncertain, assessment of potential writedowns of some $4.1 trillion. While banks are expected to bear about two-thirds of the writedowns, other financial institutions including pension funds and insurance companies also have significant credit exposures. Among other market participants, hedge funds have suffered losses related to both mark-to-market declines and forced asset liquidations due to redemptions."

3). IMF sees further $200bn UK bank losses April 21 2009 19:34 Britain’s banks have written off only a third of the losses they ultimately face, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday as it suggested lenders would have to raise at least $125bn in additional capital to rebuild their balance sheets. Britain’s banks have already written off around $110bn on complex debt securities and other assets on their balance sheets, but the IMF estimates they face another $200bn in losses over the coming two years as loans to companies and consumers go sour. In addition, the IMF calculates that British banks need a further $125bn in capital to restore their balance sheets to the state they were in before the crisis. To return them to the stronger capital ratios common in the mid-1990s, that capital infusion would have to be doubled to $250bn. However, analysts pointed out that the IMF’s capital calculations are based on a ratio of tangible common equity to total assets. This measure ignores preference shares and other hybrid instruments, and makes no allowance for the relative riskiness of different assets. When carrying out stress-tests of British banks’ balance sheets, the Financial Services Authority has used a risk-based measure of capital strength known as core Tier One. On this basis, the FSA recently concluded that Barclays does not need further capital.

4). Bailed-out firms spend millions on lobbying  

GM, banks find cash to fund bids to sway lawmakers, Obama administration

5:07 a.m. ET April 22, 2009 Top recipients of federal bailout money spent more than $10 million on political lobbying in the first three months of this year, including aggressive efforts aimed at blocking executive pay limits and tougher financial regulations, according to newly filed disclosure records. The biggest spenders among major firms in the group included General Motors, which spent nearly $1 million a month on lobbying, and Citigroup and J.P. Morgan Chase, which together spent more than $2.5 million in their efforts to sway lawmakers and Obama administration officials on a wide range of financial issues. In all, major bailout recipients have spent more than $22 million on lobbying in the six months since the government began doling out rescue funds, Senate disclosure records show.