Friday 22 January 2010

Message: Knowing the limits.


Message: Knowing the limits. When the potential changes in my lifestyle (“work”) were first discussed, I recognize of course that they past weeks, where quite wise. But still, I never anticipated (however be ready I’ve been), that they become so far reaching. And so awfully complex. How they turned to be pretty heavy and deeply exhausting. It’s like in place to winning the lottery – all you had is a resulting uncertainty. Wasn’t too a completely bad idea to aiming higher possible. Because, the resulting major shifts, at least prove the seriousness to be under employed. Well, at other hand, the correct reason that sometimes things can get said in the heat of the moment, which (how we see in “Accessing the ‘relationship’ where “I am in””.) are left unspoken. It’s exactly why I am considering that this is ideal day to take a look at my monetary situation (or, like the Andy says:”The temporary financial disequilibrium, sort off…”) Pretending that I am with my banker and describing my situation as objective as possible, without underestimating what I’m BRINGING IN (and here I’ll quote what “my agent”, the Mister President of US Obama/ Prince Phillip/Trevor Edwards say: “…As we dig our way out of this deep hole, it’s important that we not lose sight of what led us into this mess in first place.”) Than, from my agents comes another quote: “…Banks will no longer be allowed to own, invest, or sponsor hedge funds, private equity funds, or proprietary trading operations for their own profit, unrelated to serving their customers. If financial firms want trade for profit, that’s something they’re free to do. But these firms should not be allowed to run these hedge funds and private equities funds while running a bank backed by the people.” Personally, I tell you what: The benefits of having a “share in something” – is not in doubt. Even when I don’t have a majority stake.

Scenarios - How Obama's bank reforms could affect banks. On 0:54 GMT, Friday 22 January 2010. NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama is looking at limiting risk-taking at banks. But his proposals on Thursday were tantalizingly vague. He said he wanted to limit the amount of borrowing that banks can do relative to their peers and limit their trading activities to buying and selling securities to customers. But it is not clear whether relative borrowing limits will be low enough to force banks to reduce their debt. And the line between buying and selling securities on behalf of customers, and doing so on behalf of the bank, can be blurry. The White House has also said it wishes to prevent banks from investing in and sponsoring hedge funds and private equity firms, but it is not clear if banks will also be prevented from financing these clients, which can itself be risky. Wall Street firms are likely to fight any efforts at reform, and President Obama has lost some political capital after a bruising effort to pass health care reform, and losing a Senate seat in a special election in Massachusetts. Any legislation will take months if not years to wind its way through Washington, and predicting how it will the law will end up working is difficult. But here are some possible outcomes of Obama's efforts: KILLING IT SOFTLY On a conference call with journalists, Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said he had not seen details of Obama's plan, but that he generally appreciates government policies that stabilise the financial system. Experts said that banks were unlikely to publicly disagree with Obama, but are sure to furiously lobby behind the scenes to water down any proposal that the president and legislators put forward. Banks took similar steps when rulemakers and lawmakers sought to move more derivatives trading onto exchanges and into clearinghouses. Although trade groups initially said they supported efforts at reform, proposals now look likely to be watered down. Obama's efforts to reduce risk taking could meet a similar fate. Whether that is a good thing is debatable. Major banks including Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH - news) took large proprietary bets that resulted in big losses, and in Lehman's case, forced it into bankruptcy. But many bank executives are quick to argue that if they can't do this kind of trading, foreign banks and unregulated domestic entities will, which may not reduce systemic risk. GRAY HAIR TRIUMPHS A number of elder statesmen of the financial world, most notably former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker, believe that Obama is right, and that large banks should be severely constrained from making bets with their own funds. Obama seems keen to personally shepherd these changes through Congress, and given the populist outcry against Wall Street, he may have the political capital to do so. If he is successful, the biggest banks will likely shrink further. Obama's fee on bank's liabilities, announced last week, may collect less money than originally planned. Talented risk-taking traders will move to hedge funds and private equity firms, where their failures could have less of an impact on the broader market. Trading volume on major exchanges and in many financial markets may drop, because smaller players will have less capital available to consistently trade. Shares of exchanges dropped on Thursday -- NYSE Euronext dropped 3.9 percent, while CME Group Inc fell 5.8 percent. The biggest banks will likely become even less profitable, and more like staid, slow-growing utilities that pay high dividends to shareholders. One question that remains is how far Obama will go in limiting banks from risk activities. Will a bank holding company be allowed to own a hedge fund, even if the regulated bank subsidiary cannot? Will commercial banks be barred from all investment banking activities? Will foreign banks that operate in the United States be constrained? Also unclear is whether some institutions, such as Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS - news) , will be able to shed their bank charters to avoid restrictions on trading. Goldman Sachs CFO Viniar said on a conference call that the bank has no plans to get rid of its charter. Many investors believe it ought to, but regulators may balk at a move that would give them less oversight over a company whose health is critical to the financial system. RULES CHANGE, BUT BANKS BACKSLIDE Even if Obama successfully implements his risk limitations, banks may find ways around them. Banks, for example, could buy securities and claim they were doing so in anticipation of client demand, when in fact they intended to make bets on the securities and hold onto them themselves. Or bank holding companies could engage in risky activity that leaves their subsidiary banks worse off. But if regulators are sufficiently vigilant, and limit risk-taking across many businesses in the financial sector, the brainpower that Wall Street devotes to finding loopholes may migrate to other sectors of the economy. From Obama's standpoint, this may be the most positive scenario.

Three missing as helicopter crashes in sea off Almería. .By h.b. - Jan 22, 2010 - 6:37 AM. Three people are missing after a helicopter fell into the sea five nautical miles off Almería. Emergency services sources say they received a phone alert from the Almería Airport control tower at 8,30pm on Thursday night. Flares were spotted from the area the copter is thought to have gone done after radio and radar control was lost. Four people where travelling in the ‘Helimer’ helicopter, and El Mundo reports one of whom was rescued in a serious condition. They had gone to carry out some flight manoeuvres with the ship ‘Névola’. The cause of the accident is unknown and a search continues in the area.

Portugal preocupado com comparação com a Grécia. Portugal apresenta uma dívida pública elevada, mas não se encontra na situação de países como a Grécia e a Irlanda. A conclusão é da CNBC, que indica que Portugal está preocupado com a "colagem" da sua imagem à da Grécia. À cadeia de televisão norte-americana, o Governador do Banco de Portugal afirma que "Portugal não é dos piores países". Portugal apresenta uma dívida pública elevada, mas não se encontra na situação de países como a Grécia e a Irlanda. A conclusão é da CNBC, que indica que Portugal está preocupado com a “colagem” da sua imagem à da Grécia. À cadeia de televisão norte-americana, que fez uma reportagem em Lisboa com o tema, o Governador do Banco de Portugal afirma que “Portugal não é dos piores países”.

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